The Swing States of America And Super-Votes For RFK, Part 2
The decibel level from both the Biden and Trump camps about RFK’s alleged “spoiler” candidacy is sure to intensify mightily as Election Day draws nearer. Blocking the election of the other guy, in fact, is about all either of the main party candidates have to offer. Biden’s platform essentially boils down to “Orange Man Bad”, while Trump’s main message is that Biden is a walking corpse who will complete the nation’s ruination.
By contrast, RFK has a pretty deep and sound grasp on what ails the nation and why UniParty rule must come to a decisive end. Yet his growing support could all be for naught unless he develops a disciplined, focused strategy to actually win the election and to then throw the money-changers out of the temple of American Democracy, as it were, thereafter.
As it happens, the winning strategy part and the debunking the spoiler part fit together like hand-in-glove. Based on the data for the three divisions of the American electorate that we presented in Part 1, it’s hard to see how RFK could actually function as a “spoiler”, to say nothing of winning an outright plurality of votes, in either the 15 Blue Wall states or the 20 Red Wall states.
These states accounted for 97.4 million voters in 2020 or 62% of the national total of 158.4 million. Even more importantly, they account for 354 of the 538 Electoral College votes or 66%. Yet the 2020 margins of Biden and Trump in their respective bases were so immense that in most cases it is virtually impossible to project how RFK could shift the 2024 outcome away from the 2020 winner. As a practical matter, therefore, there is neither a spoiler game nor a winning hand to be played in upwards of two-thirds of the election playing field, as we will illustrate below.
At the same time, the prospects are amazingly strong that RFK could decisively upset the 2020 applecart in the 16 Swing States of America. The problem is, even if he won every one of these battleground states he could not carry the Electoral College because they have only 184 votes between them—a level far short of the 270 vote requirement.
In short, there is no plausible outcome for the 2024 presidential election except a default victory for one of the two branches of the UniParty or a Contingent Election in the US House and a deal for the ages to put RFK in the Oval Office.
As to the dead-end in the Blue Wall and Red Wall states, just consider an example of the former, Washington state, where Biden won in 2020 with 2.369 million votes versus Trump’s 1.585 million votes. That amounted to a 784,961 vote victory margin or a whopping 19.2% spread.
Therefore, even if RFK were to obtain 32% (1,308,042) of the 2024 vote out of an electorate of 4,087,631 votes in Washington state, he would need to obtain an overwhelming and disproportionate share of these votes from Biden’s 2020 supporters in order to change the outcome. For example, if RFK drew in strict proportion to the 59.93%/40.07% split of the vote between Biden and Trump, Biden would still win the state by a comfortable margin, along with its 12 Electoral Votes.
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