The Swing States Of America And Super-Votes For RFK, Part 1

Down on the farm we knew that when the pigs were squealing loudly they were either having an especially fulsome chow-down or the wolf was circling the pen. The Donald’s loud squealing against RFK on social media in recent days is surely a case of the latter.

Anti-government conservatives are belatedly abandoning the Donald’s fake arm-waving at the Swamp in favor of the genuine insurgency of RFK. So Trump has apparently recognized that his “keep out of jail free card” depends on convincing anti-establishment voters that they would be wasting their vote on an independent candidate who is actually addressing their concerns.

“RFK Jr. is a Democrat ‘Plant,’ a Radical Left Liberal who’s been put in place in order to help Crooked Joe Biden, the Worst President in the History of the United States, get Re-Elected,” President Trump wrote in an April 26 Truth Social post.

“A Vote for Junior’ would essentially be a WASTED PROTEST VOTE, that could swing either way, but would only swing against the Democrats if Republicans knew the true story about him. Junior’ is totally Anti-Gun, an Extreme Environmentalist who makes the Green New Scammers look Conservative, a Big Time Taxer and Open Border Advocate, and Anti-Military/Vet…”

As it happens, the 2024 election involves the most hated pair of major party candidates in modern history. So the Donald’s all caps expostulation about a “WASTED PROTEST VOTE” will have especial resonance as the election comes down to the wire in the final weeks. By then, both candidates will have inexorably reduced their pitch to stopping the horror of a victory by their opponent.

In that context, RFK needs a well-honed pitch that debunks the “spoiler” charge and, instead, explains exactly how and where a vote for the Kennedy-Shanahan ticket is actually the opposite—namely, a “super-vote” that can contribute directly and powerfully to breaking the stranglehold of the UniParty on the US government.

The route to that end, of course, means stopping both Biden and Trump from attaining an Electoral College majority of 270 votes. Ironically, we believe that RFK has an excellent chance to accomplish this owing to his ability to attract disillusioned voters from both camps via the electoral math outlined below.

Furthermore, if the election is consequently thrown into the US House of Representatives for the first time in 200 years, then under the 12th Amendment procedure there is a good probability the only candidate who could win the requisite 26 delegations is RFK. That’s because in the US House there are currently only 22 blue state delegations and very limited chance for any more. So Biden cannot likely win the House vote, leaving RFK would as the only alternative to Donald Trump when push finally comes to shove.  And by the latter, we mean a multi-round scenario in which deep blue states come to recognize that to stop Trump from gaining a second term they will need to throw their vote to RFK.