Natcons, Neocons, Taxcons and Justcons, Part 2

If there was ever a case for intelligent supply-side policy, the chart below makes it in spades. Historically employment gains have accounted for about 50% of total economic growth, and averaged nearly 2.0% per annum during the heyday of the 1950s and 1960s. But since July 2019 the growth of total employment—even on the BLS’ inflated headcount basis—was only +3.65 million from the starting point of 158.37 million. That computes to a gain of just 0.46% per annum or barely one-quarter of the historic level.

Still, that’s not the half of it. During that five-year period the employment level for native born workers actually declined by about 208,000, meaning that foreign-born workers accounted for fully 3.86 million or 107% of the tepid gain in total US employment. Indeed, it was only the robust 2.7% per annum growth of foreign born employment that kept the US work force—and by extension the GDP—from shrinking.

As we amplify below, there is not a lot that can be done about the stagnant native-born work force. Babies not born two, three and four decades ago cannot be motivated to work—even with tax cuts!

At the moment, therefore, true supply-side policy requires more foreign-born workers and a rational, large-scale Guest Worker program that can place them in factories, shops and other work places across Flyover America in an efficient, orderly and safe manner.

Native-Born Versus Foreign-Born Employment, July 2019 to July 2024

Needless to say, economic markets abhor supply/demand imbalances and therefore always and everywhere militate toward re-balancing—unless these adjustments are thwarted by the heavy-hand of the state. In the case of the large scale flow of economic migrants from central America to the US southern border, the imbalance that is drawing workers northward could not be more dramatic.

Here is the per capita GDP as of 2022 for the US versus the nine nearby countries from which large numbers of migrants originate. When the ratio ranges from 5:1 to 15:1 there is no mystery as to why the labor-short US market is attracting large-scale economic migrants.

2022 GDP Per Capita:

• USA: $76,330.

• Nicaragua: $15,675.

• Costa Rica: $13,365.

• Mexico: $11,500.

• Dominican Republic: $10,110.

• Belize: $6,985.

• Guatemala: $5,475.

• El Salvador: $5,200.

• Honduras: $3,050.

• Haiti: $1,750.