David Stockmans Contra Corner

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David Stockmans Contra Corner
How Trump/DOGE Can Balance The Budget And Eliminate $110 Trillion Of Future Public Debt

How Trump/DOGE Can Balance The Budget And Eliminate $110 Trillion Of Future Public Debt

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david stockman
Feb 25, 2025
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David Stockmans Contra Corner
How Trump/DOGE Can Balance The Budget And Eliminate $110 Trillion Of Future Public Debt
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It shouldn’t take much—just a handful of Freedom Caucus fiscal stalwarts—to effect a mercy-killing of Speaker Johnson’s debt-drenched budget bill. And, as we laid out in last week’s post entitled “Time For A Mercy Killing—The House GOP’s Budget Resolution Hides A $4.4 Trillion Deficit Fraud”, the plan’s demise is surely warranted owing to—

  • “instructions” to four standing committees to enact $6 trillion in higher Federal borrowing over the next decade.

  • Exceedingly lame spending “cut” instructions which amount to less than 2% of the runaway Federal spending baseline.

  • $4.6 trillion of fake spending cuts and revenue gains embedded in the pending House resolution.

  • $24 trillion added to the public debt over the 10-year budget window—even with the help of CBO’s Rosy Scenario economics.

Yet, there is actually an even better reason to send the House budget plan back to committee for a top-to-bottom redo. To wit, based on the recent statements and actions of President Trump, Elon Musk and other key administration officials, there is available an implicit alternative budget plan, which would lead in the diametrically opposite direction—that is, to a balanced budget by 2029 and an easy path to sustainable surpluses thereafter as far as the eye can see.

Stated differently, in lieu of the Johnson plan to reinforce the nation’s headlong drift toward fiscal calamity and a prosperity and liberty crushing $150 trillion public debt by mid-century, there is actually a realistic fiscal path consistent with current Trump/DOGE positioning that would cap the public debt permanently at $39.5 trillion. That is, the King of Debt himself could bequeath the nation with a permanent solution to today’s dangerous public debt spiral, which, in turn, could prevent the incurrence of $110 trillion of new public debt over the coming quarter century.

We amplify a detailed blueprint below, but it is important to highlight here that our proposed Trump/DOGE fiscal plan could cut the FY 2026 deficit to $740 billion and generate a modest $60 billion surplus by Trump’s final budget in FY 2029. In all, the cumulative four-year deficits would total just $1.3 trillion. That compares to baseline deficits during the same period of $7.3 trillion, according to CBO.

CBO Baseline Deficits:

  • FY 2026: $1.713 trillion.

  • FY 2027: $1.687 trillion.

  • FY 2028: $1.911 trillion.

  • FY 2029: $1.938 trillion.

  • Four-Year total: $7.300 trillion.

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