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How Trump/DOGE Can Balance The Budget And Eliminate $110 Trillion of Future Debt, Part 3

How Trump/DOGE Can Balance The Budget And Eliminate $110 Trillion of Future Debt, Part 3

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david stockman
Feb 27, 2025
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David Stockmans Contra Corner
How Trump/DOGE Can Balance The Budget And Eliminate $110 Trillion of Future Debt, Part 3
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When you set aside net interest expense and national security spending, the CBO baseline for what is essentially domestic government amounts to $6 trillion. As a matter of perspective, that’s more than the GDP of 191 out of the 193 sovereign nations on the planet. In fact, the figure for domestic government exceeds the $4-5 trillion GDP’s each of Germany, Japan and India, and is exceeded only by the GDP of China and the USA itself.

In that context, here is the CBO baseline spending for Federal domestic programs over 2026 thru 2029—along with the total proposed cuts and % reductions for each year. Needless to say, the $762 billion cut projected under the Trump/DOGE balanced budget plan for 2029 is a large number in absolute terms, but still amounts to only 12.7% of the baseline spending of what amounts to the third largest country in the world.

As is evident from the tables below, the cuts are phased in gradually in many instances, such that total savings by FY 2029 stabilize at about double the initial FY 2026 cuts. Still, the $2.27 trillion cumulative savings over the 4-year period amounts to just 10% of the built-in baseline. That’s hardly an indication that a balanced budget plan needs to obliterate the domestic functions of the Federal government.

However, beneath the figures lies a more sweeping change in Federal policy. Fully $1.5 trillion of the CBO baseline is for means-tested entitlements and a wide range of education, social services and community development programs, which would be consolidated into Block Grants and shipped lock, stock and barrel back to the state and local taxpayers.

After all, the latter currently send the money on a wasteful round trip to Washington where large amounts of it leak out along the way. Accordingly, while 13% of current domestic spending would be cut, a much larger portion of the Federal bureaucracy and policy apparatus would be eliminated entirely.

CBO Baseline Outlays For Domestic Programs:

  • 2026: $5.348 trillion.

  • 2027: $5.592 trillion.

  • 2028: $5.877 trillion.

  • 2029: $5.980 trillion.

  • 4-year total: $22.797 trillion.

Trump/DOGE Spending Cuts:

  • 2026: $375 billion.

  • 2027: $507 billion.

  • 2028: $643 billion.

  • 2029: $762 billion.

  • 4-year total: $2.277 trillion.

Trump/DOGE Cuts As % Of CBO Baseline:

  • 2026:6.8%.

  • 2027: 9.1%.

  • 2028:10.9%.

  • 2029: 12.7%.

  • 4-year total: 10.0%.

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